Using Stats to Make a Roster Decision: An NFL Example

Nation,

A group of local ultimate "think tank" members (as we're dubbed) have been geeking out over a very cool site called Pro Football Focus.

Looking at the best and worst players at each position this year, one of the thinkers asked where Cleveland Browns QB Brady Quinn would fall in the ratings of quarterbacks.

It's very true that Quarterbacks rely on many teammates for success. Receivers much catch, people must block, and people need to run the plays as directed in order to get success. However, QBs remain the most important people on the field and have greater control over the outcome of the game than any other player.

Sounds like a main offensive Handler's role in ultimate, no?

I went to the pro football focus site and looked for methodology... and didn't get much in order to answer the Quinn question. Looking for the Wages of Wins QB ratings, I ended up on a new site that builds on the wages of wins football measure (unlike the basketball wages of wins, the NFL model has been criticized).

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/better-qb-passer-rating.html

I took their formula (the model looks legit) and came up with the following 2009 wins produced of Quinn, Derek Anderson and Peyton Manning

Advanced NFL Stats= Brady Quinn versus Derek Anderson

QB Wins Added
Brady Quinn -1.542092593
Derek Anderson -3.963324675
Peyton Manning +3.300733894

Formula: QB Wins Added = (Comp% * 0.18) - (Int/Att * 50.5) - (Sack Yds/Att * 1.57) - 8

Thoughts
-Brady Quinn will lose 1.5 games more than the average quarterback based on his current performance
-Derek Anderson will lose 3.96 games more than the average
-Brady should continue to start, as he is the best of two below average options
-Peyton Manning is over 3 wins better than the average quarterback.

How it Applies to Ultimate?

I wish it did apply more. Right now, the best we have for stats is a clipboard or iphone used during the game, trying to capture everything under time pressure. It's easy to miss stuff and accurately measure what's really happening.

If you are doing stats already, and have data on your teams, please send it my way!

I will re-ask people to consider the following
-video tape their teams games
-break their games down play by play and stat by stat
-Work together with other teams to build a data set of a particular division to determine the average performance of players in a particular division/level

If that was done, we could move forward with a formula to determine whether players were average or below average on defense and offense.

Coordinating teams might be a problem, and one team breaking down video for all other teams is too much of a workload. However, teams like DoG have been using data for years to make better decisions about who's contributing.

It's time for teams to build on this. Don't wait for other teams to do it first and gain the advantage.

Ultimate Canada Conference 2009- Weekend of Progress

Nation,

This weekend I attended and presented at the annual CUPA conference. Dubbed the Ultimate Canada Conference, it was held in Montreal.

The location and venues were appropriate. The conference was held on site at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM) campus in downtown Montreal. The academic setting was perfect for the informative sessions, and it represented ultimate well- Good central location that was economical and practical. Ultimate doesn't need to pay to host their conference in the main ballroom of the Hilton.

Here were the highlights for the 50+ delegates that represented the NSO/PSOs and member city leagues..

-CUPA has voted to change their name to Ultimate Canada.
-Amazing delegate package featuring shorts and hoodies from 5 Ultimate, Jersey from VC Ultimate and disc from Daredevil
-Great presentations on topics such as youth development, innovative ultimate programs like the carbon flip and wheelchair ultimate
-Group brainstorming session regarding national plans and priorities
-A pickup wheelchair ultimate session participated in by all delegates

In the coming weeks, I will try to ensure that the conference presentations are available via the web, and I'll dedicated some posts specifically to discuss and highlight some key parts of the weekend.

Overall, outside of the fun/antics, this was the results of the weekend

• We had a record number of delegates
• We had an amazing chance for stakeholders of the game to meet and get to understand what is going on outside our region
• Our leagues throughout the country got many opportunities to learn and provide feedback on what they see and what they want to see from the NSO moving forward

Thanks to Montreal Ultimate for once again being a great host.

You haven't left the GOAT Herd yet... Have You?

Nation,

If you have had the pleasure of playing or watching GOAT or Furious George, you'd be hard pressed to dispute that:

• Both teams are good at 'frisbee'
• Both teams are very good elite teams at the UPA level
• Both teams had disappointing UPA runs this fall
  

Usually when a team I support or am involved with does well, I think I must come across as a cynic devil's advocate. I don't mean to be, I just simply don't like it when people make too much of a win and make incorrect inferences from them. It's the complete opposite when said team doesn't do well. I get to be honestly positive when people are going over the top negative.

The wheels fell off for GOAT at nationals. Furious lost the last spot to finals at regionals versus a team they beat at the same tournament the day before. Hence, we have been subjected to "what's wrong with GOAT/Monkey" questions ever since.

These teams are elite teams. They played elite teams and won and lost. Heading into each game, there were certain probabilities that GOAT/Furious would win or lose. I think people would be shocked at how evenly likely teams at this level can win or lose and how arbitrary the outcomes can be.

A good example: Dave Berri of Wages explains Randomness and how people are fooled. (original concept from Nassim Taleb's book):

"At the start of each football game a coin is tossed to determine who will receive the opening kick-off. Let’s imagine if instead of just one team calling heads or tails the fans in attendance were also asked to make a call. And let’s further imagine that if you make the correct call, you get to stay. But if you are wrong, you have to leave.

Okay, now let’s do a bit more imagining. Let’s say 80,000 fans are in attendance – and since fans know it is a fair coin (equally likely to be heads or tails) — about 40,000 make the wrong call. So these fans exit the building. After they are gone, let’s imagine we play the same game again. This time, about 20,000 fans are incorrect and they depart. And then we play it again, and again, and again… After three tosses we are left with about 10,000 fans. After seven tosses there are about 625 fans. After twelve tosses we should still have about 40 people left in the stands.

Now what have these 40 people learned? These people have just called a coin flip correctly twelve consecutive times. Clearly these people are incredible at this game.

If we play the game one more time, though, we should expect about 20 more to depart. What will these departing fans have learned? Well, clearly they just didn’t match-up with the 20 who got the 13^th call correctly. And they better go home and figure out why that particular match-up didn’t work if they ever wish to see another football game.

The Point?

Makes you realize how good Fury and Riot are in the women's division compared to the rest of the field.

People often have problems understanding randomness. And what it says is relevant to how people see the results of a team at UPA finals or tournament finishes in general.

As for our Canadian teams

• Furious proved they are able to win out of their ultra tough region, but they simply didn't win the game that counted.
  
• GOAT shouldn't over-react to their recent slip.. unless there is a clear team in their team/opposition that leads them to conclude their chances to win have decreased.

So don't throw out the Furious or GOAT foam finger yet. You could replay Finals again this weekend and have completely different results on the open side.

This shouldn't stop teams from doing things in the off season to improve their probabilities and odds for next year. Training, studying video, strategy, recruitment, and all the fun stuff!

Goosebowl 2009 Review

Nation,

Last weekend, Goosebowl 2009 quietly went down.

Once a very big coed tournament, the number of teams were down this year (12 from previous years of 30-42 teams) but I'm sure everyone in attendance had a good time.

Toronto club MONSTER emerged as this year's champs.

4 on 4 Ultimate- Skill Developer or Bad Habit Generator?

Nation,

After a long hiatus from indoor ultimate, I signed up with some of my oldest and best ultimate friends for a 4 on 4 indoor ultimate team. I was really unsure about signing up for this, because I've never been a fan of variants of ultimate. Practice makes permanent, and surrounding yourself with indoor people who make bad choices is not good for your game. However, Goaltimate proved me wrong earlier this year, and worst case scenario I was playing with good people.

After my first experience on Sunday, I was pleasantly surprised with the 4 on 4 concept.

4 on 4 is very popular in Quebec (They just had a tournament last weekend), and it allows people to play on smaller surfaces and provides a serious workout. With four players per team on the field, You can't be a lazy handler in this game.

Major Things Quebec has taught us about indoor

• No breaks between points (sub of the fly, or simply no pulls)
• Handler movement
  

In the first half of our game, we looked like a bunch of comp ultimate players trying to figure out the new rules of this game. Personally, I found that the small field was going to change my mindset (outside of hucks, I like to play 100% low risk offence) and forced me to throw more breaks and challenging throws because.. the defence was giving me no option. We were also having a fun time trying to figure out how to game plan defensively (Do we force middle to take away the sneaky blade throws that some teams use indoors? Do we try some sort of junk zone? Please feel free to comment viewers)

In the second half, we started to roll. Maybe we started to adapt, maybe the other team got tired from a very fast paced first half (probably a little from column a, a little from column b). I can tell you it was major fun to make break throws that you wouldn't otherwise think and your cutters wouldn't expect in regular play.

In the end, I think this format of indoor can be a skill developer or a bad habit generator just like any other variant. If you want to practice throws that will work outside and can be used in ultimate, than you're going to improve your skills as a thrower and a cutter. If you want to throw off hand and make throws that the wind will not tolerate, than you're getting into bad habit mode.

I'll probably have to look into a Quebec tournament this winter. We'll see how the season goes.

Finally.. The Off Season... A time to Evaluate

Nation,

It's been a long season. A good season mind you, but a long season for Canadian Ultimate. We had a lot of hot topics this summer:

• Canadian Nationals
  
• The annual UPA excitement (Club and College)
  
• One of the best University Nationals ever
  
• The summer tournament schedule was packed north and south of the border
• World Club Bids
• The unusual crappy summer weather

As we hit the off season, I have no interest in slowing down my posts. It seems like there is a lot to talk about:

• Discussion of Canadian Nationals and its future
• Canada's position on the world stage
• Discussion of current Strategy trends and when the game of ultimate is headed (speaking in terms of x's and o's)
• Online voting of best players and teams in 2009
• Off season training
• Off Season Team Planning and Review processes
• Junior Worlds in 2010
• WFDF Under 23 tournament.. and the Top players under 23.
  

If you've got any ideas about topics this blog should discuss, please feel to post.

UPA Finals 2009 Review- Chain Lightning Strikes.. with Fury

Nation,

A lot of teams (and their respective cities) entered the 2009 Finals with high hopes. Regionals showed us that defending champions in various divisions were vulnerable and could be beaten. With so many viable teams, team leaders (especially those in open) had a lot of different teams to game plan for. I can imagine it would be daunting. Underestimating any team could lead to an upset.

Open

I was happy to see the parity in this division in 2009. There was only two blowout games in pool play (both 15-5 losses) and it seemed that this was the closest all 16 teams have ever been in terms of talent. All number one seeds held their seeds on day one (Revolver, Chain Lightning, Ironside and Sockeye) and teams pulling 'upsets' included Truck Stop and Ring of Fire.

In the end, Chain Lightning from Atlanta and Revolver from the SF Bay Area both took undefeated paths to the finals. Both teams have been working for years to make the finals. Chain had already had breakthroughs at UPA finals 2008, while Revolver had added some high profile pieces to explode as an elite power this year. Chain Lightning took the final 15-11 over Revolver and wins it's first national championship.

As for Canadian hopeful GOAT, I can only speculate that it was a disappointing weekend. They were upset by Truck Stop and lost to Revolver on day one. On day two, they were upset on universe (16-15) by San Diego's StreetGang but still had a quarters play in shot versus Johnny Bravo. Heartbreak ensued, as GOAT lost this match 16-14 . The spiral continued as the team lost to Madison Club and finally Bodhi (13-9) to finish 12th.

Women's

Heading into the finals, a lot of people worried this would be a two team show once again (Fury and Riot). Thankfully, it was not, and we can thank two eastern teams (Capitals and Brute Squad) for that.

7 of the top 8 teams held seed on day one, save for Vancouver's Traffic (going 1-2 and being upset by Lady Condors of Santa Barbara). Day 2 saw a huge victory for Ontario's Capitals, as they defeated Riot of Seattle 16-14. With the win, the Capitals had set themselves up for their best possible chance of making semis and finals. Traffic took care of business on day two and got a quarters play in game versus Zeitgeist. Unfortunately, Zeitgeist got the win and Traffic was left to fight for 9th (they did indeed win out and get 9th spot).

The Capitals won their quarter final and headed into semi finals with hope- Their day two upset over Riot forced Riot and Fury to play semis versus each other, and all the Capitals had to do was beat Boston rival Brute Squad. You may recall that half of the Capitals sqaud (Lotus) won the Boston Invite this year and lost to Brute Squad at the No Borders final by one point. Combining Stella and Lotus could only help tip the scales against Brute.

Unfortunately, the Capitals fell just short of finals, losing to Brute on universe point (16-15). I looked forward to the readers giving the first hand perspective of this game. I have to salute the Capitals for progress made this year and at this tournament. (Simply beating Riot is a step forward.)

In the final, Fury won easily over Brute Squad by a final score of 15-3. It's the 4th straight title for the San Francisco club. Despite looking vulnerable during the summer season, this team won when it counted most.

Masters

GLUM of Ottawa had huge hopes heading into this tournament and with good reason. Their play against DoG at regionals indicated that this could be THE YEAR. It was not to be.

Starting off day one with a serious leg injury to talented newcomer Derek Hodgson, GLUM never seemed to get on track. They had the misfortune of having 3 of the top 4 final finishers in their pool -who seeded these teams? :) , and faced the talented Beyondors (Think Ex Condors players like Husak, Steets, etc). However, GLUM won out after their quarters exit and finished in 5th place.

In the final, Troubled Past from California defeated Surly of Minnesota 15-11 to take the UPA title. It is the first championship for Troubled Past, after finishing 3rd last year.

Mixed

The final saw two teams looking for their first upa finals championship. Virgina's Axis of C'Ville, lead by former Sockeye player Chase Sparling-Beckley, faced off against Iowa team Chad Larson Experience. Both teams went undefeated through pool play and breezed to finals. In the end, the Axis of C'Ville won 15-11.

On the Canadian end, Edmonton's Psychoplastique held seed on day one, going 1-2 and playing top seed Mental Toss Flycoons hard head to head. On day two, Psychoplastique suffered losses to both Jukebox Hero and One Trick Pony. Playing for 13th, Psychoplastique beating Bashing Pinatas before losing to Brown Chicken Brown Cow and finishing 14th in their first UPA finals.