"Being Classy is Free"...

Nation,

Every year, teams and players go through the unfortunate following:

• They say no to players trying to make their teams
• They cut current players and leaders that they longer wish to "retain"
• They get passed over by players who leave them to join other teams

Now, we can agree that these decisions are not easy. We can only handle/train so many players, so many voices, and so many egos on a team. We have no way to retain players in this amateur sport, and players have the right to leave when they want to. We can only assume that when these tough situations happen, teams and leaders need to do it with class.

As a friend said recently, "Being Classy is Free". And yet, in ultimate we are rife every year with stories about poorly handled situations where that unlimited and free resource of Classiness is not applied in ultimate.

Non-Football Example- Bobby Bowden Gets Axed at Florida State

This week, the president and athletic director of Florida State University unceremoniously gave football coach Bobby Bowden, head coach for 33 years at the school, no choice but to "resign" at the end of this season.

Bowden, 80 years old, was clearly nearing the end. In fairness, being 80 and running a national football program is a daunting task. His ability to recruit and field a powerhouse had waned, and a conference full of coaches who are younger, more tech savvy (Does Bobby Bowden tweet?), and more effective was clearly hurting the FSU program. The school was getting all the ego and swagger of a college football coach, and none of the results. I'm sure Bowden was a jerk, but that doesn't excuse one from their actions.

On the other hand, Bowden was an icon at the school. He made that school. The football field is named after him. His teams were top 5 in the country from 1987-2000. Won two national titles. And let's be serious- He brought more money to that school that anyone ever has.

What will the FSU Football girls (pictured) do without Bowden?

The major problem with the firing.. errr resignation was the way it was done.

The President, who made the firing, and the athletic director were responsible for the decision. In order to announce it, they used two current players to face the media. They refused to address the media and answer for their actions. Not only did they fire a legend, they didn't want to explain why.

Bringing it back to ultimate, I think these kinds of awkward situations are caused by poor leaders, or simply people who focused more on their own pursuits than the feelings and dignity of others. I think people forget that we play a volunteer amateur sport that the real world doesn't really respect a whole he&& of a lot.

There is no real hard and fast rules about being classy, but I would simply advocate the 'golden rule' of doing onto others as you would would have do onto you. That's a simple start.

One Play Does Not a Game Make

Nation,

Last Sunday night was the Canadian Football League's championship game. One of very own ultimate players works for the CFL head office (Let's call him "Loic") so it is great to see the league doing so well and being so popular in Canada. 6.1 million viewers watch the final game of three down football in 2009.

The Montreal Alouettes won the game with a 28-27 win over the Saskatchewan Roughriders. This was Montreal's 7th appearance in the cup final this decade, and had only won once before in six tries. If they didn't win, I was going to write an article asking you readers if great players whose teams don't win are still great. (Jim Kelly and Dan Marino anyone?)

After a somewhat quiet first three quarters, the game picked up and saw Montreal come back froma 27-11 deficit to win the game on the final play of the game.

Pretty normal stuff right? But for those of you who didn't watch the game.. here's where it gets tricky.

• On the final play Montreal's kicker (Damon Duval, who set a league record for points in a season this year) misses a 43 yard kick.
• Saskatchewan celebrates their win
• Flags are down amid celebration
  
• Saskatchewan has too many players on the field for the final play. 10 yard penalty and another chance for Montreal.
• Montreal boots the 33 yard field goal and wins the Grey Cup

So, this is probably the only time in professional sports both teams thought they won the championship. Replays clearly show the Roughriders had too many men on the field. There was no arguing the call.

The news headlines and TV coverage were pretty consistent: 'One big mistake costs Grey Cup'. But was that really the case? Was it just one penalty that decided the game?


We are guilty of this same type of analysis in ultimate. We often point to a single play as the "TSN Turning Point". That big d block "turned the tide" or "made the difference". It's simply not true.

Blaming a loss on one player making one play/mistake is very unfair. When you blow a 27-11 lead in a football game or a 14-10 lead in ultimate, there were many wrong things that lead to the loss. The defence failed to stop the opponent. The offence stopped scoring. Players allowed one play to get into their game and distract them.

Conversely, I also get disappointed from the overused word "clutch". Somebody can miss 70% of their shots in a basketball game, but if they hit a game winning shot at the buzzer they are clutch. Would the game have needed that shot had the player made more of their shots earlier?

Why should we try to avoid judging a game by one play?

The consequences can be heavy. It's a heavy burden to bear for the person that is at fault. It can also lead to overvaluing someone who makes a key positive play.

Look no further than Bill Buckner. Buckner had a stellar Major League Baseball career and made it to an All Star game. However, he and his name is now synonymous with one error in the 1986 world series. It doesn't matter that the team had another game to make up for that play and lost game 7, he is still the goat.

Right now the Saskatchewan team refuses to identify who was at fault for the play. They don't want someone to be labeled and I salute them for that. I hope ultimate teams behave in such a manner when the unfortunate happens.

The Potential WFDF Under 23 Tournament- Name the Roster

Nation,

As you may know, there have been rumblings about WFDF holding an under 23 world championship. The original rumor was that it would be held in 2010, but this seems unlikely. Hosting a tournament that would run in the same summer as world clubs (Prague) and world juniors (Germany) does not make sense. It is rather late for planning purposes (picking a site and running the event in less than 12 months) and it would use players who are possibly involved in both of the other two events.

2011 looks like a more realistic possibility for an under 23 tournament. Currently, we await to see if it will happen.

In the meantime, we can speculate as to WHO would be on the team Canada roster for an under 23 world championship team.

So, my challenge this week to you readers
-Post me your top male and female under 23 (as of 2010) players, top 7, top 10, top 14, etc
-Describe their roles on the team and why you picked each player

Upon collecting a list of players, we will either put the player list to vote or just general discussion.

Spirit of The Game: A New Low for Soccer/Football

Nation,

A classic story. France commits three violations (off side, two deliberate handballs) and directly scores a goal to tie Ireland. The goal is allowed to stand, and France unfairly beats Ireland on aggregate (that means they played two games and emerged victorious by goal differential/tie break). The referees seem to be absent on the play, missing all these infractions.

Why the uproar you ask? Why should Ireland care about losing a British game (Seriously, there are beautiful Irish stadiums throughout the country that forbid any sort of British based games to be played in them.. stemming from the famine and occupation atrocities of past centuries.. i digress.) to the French?

The key is what was at stake.

Despite the fact that gaelic football is more important than football/soccer, the Irish wanted to be part of the World Cup. Every country does. It's a global status symbol, and there is significant money involved.

FIFA likes to call their sport "the beautiful game" but sometimes it can be quite ugly. We have a world full of countries that raise players to dive and over exaggerate infractions to draw fouls. We have an outdated extra time system that makes no sense to the outside world. We have no replay or challenge mechanism in this day and age where these tools can easily be used to right the wrongs of normal human referee mistakes. I could go on with more stories of corruption and cheating throughout the world in this sport. It's not beautiful... it's downright ugly.


Ultimate... In the Same Position?

I can't be blind and say that ultimate and ultimate players are above making the wrong calls in games of importance. Put a worlds bid on the line and take out observers and cameras and we would have a much different game than we would otherwise.

However, I can say that ultimate has the following going for it

-Spirit of the Game, I think, has curtailed a lot of the incentive to cheat in most ultimate games. I rely on my opponent to make the right calls, and if order to do so I must in turn make the right calls as well. We can't rely on a 'parent' (observer) to step in.
-We're certainly open to using instant replay.. as was seen at CUC 2009.
-Our observer program seems to be growing and we are growing the pool of observers available for tournaments.

Using Stats to Make a Roster Decision: An NFL Example

Nation,

A group of local ultimate "think tank" members (as we're dubbed) have been geeking out over a very cool site called Pro Football Focus.

Looking at the best and worst players at each position this year, one of the thinkers asked where Cleveland Browns QB Brady Quinn would fall in the ratings of quarterbacks.

It's very true that Quarterbacks rely on many teammates for success. Receivers much catch, people must block, and people need to run the plays as directed in order to get success. However, QBs remain the most important people on the field and have greater control over the outcome of the game than any other player.

Sounds like a main offensive Handler's role in ultimate, no?

I went to the pro football focus site and looked for methodology... and didn't get much in order to answer the Quinn question. Looking for the Wages of Wins QB ratings, I ended up on a new site that builds on the wages of wins football measure (unlike the basketball wages of wins, the NFL model has been criticized).

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007/07/better-qb-passer-rating.html

I took their formula (the model looks legit) and came up with the following 2009 wins produced of Quinn, Derek Anderson and Peyton Manning

Advanced NFL Stats= Brady Quinn versus Derek Anderson

QB Wins Added
Brady Quinn -1.542092593
Derek Anderson -3.963324675
Peyton Manning +3.300733894

Formula: QB Wins Added = (Comp% * 0.18) - (Int/Att * 50.5) - (Sack Yds/Att * 1.57) - 8

Thoughts
-Brady Quinn will lose 1.5 games more than the average quarterback based on his current performance
-Derek Anderson will lose 3.96 games more than the average
-Brady should continue to start, as he is the best of two below average options
-Peyton Manning is over 3 wins better than the average quarterback.

How it Applies to Ultimate?

I wish it did apply more. Right now, the best we have for stats is a clipboard or iphone used during the game, trying to capture everything under time pressure. It's easy to miss stuff and accurately measure what's really happening.

If you are doing stats already, and have data on your teams, please send it my way!

I will re-ask people to consider the following
-video tape their teams games
-break their games down play by play and stat by stat
-Work together with other teams to build a data set of a particular division to determine the average performance of players in a particular division/level

If that was done, we could move forward with a formula to determine whether players were average or below average on defense and offense.

Coordinating teams might be a problem, and one team breaking down video for all other teams is too much of a workload. However, teams like DoG have been using data for years to make better decisions about who's contributing.

It's time for teams to build on this. Don't wait for other teams to do it first and gain the advantage.

Ultimate Canada Conference 2009- Weekend of Progress

Nation,

This weekend I attended and presented at the annual CUPA conference. Dubbed the Ultimate Canada Conference, it was held in Montreal.

The location and venues were appropriate. The conference was held on site at the University of Quebec in Montreal (UQAM) campus in downtown Montreal. The academic setting was perfect for the informative sessions, and it represented ultimate well- Good central location that was economical and practical. Ultimate doesn't need to pay to host their conference in the main ballroom of the Hilton.

Here were the highlights for the 50+ delegates that represented the NSO/PSOs and member city leagues..

-CUPA has voted to change their name to Ultimate Canada.
-Amazing delegate package featuring shorts and hoodies from 5 Ultimate, Jersey from VC Ultimate and disc from Daredevil
-Great presentations on topics such as youth development, innovative ultimate programs like the carbon flip and wheelchair ultimate
-Group brainstorming session regarding national plans and priorities
-A pickup wheelchair ultimate session participated in by all delegates

In the coming weeks, I will try to ensure that the conference presentations are available via the web, and I'll dedicated some posts specifically to discuss and highlight some key parts of the weekend.

Overall, outside of the fun/antics, this was the results of the weekend

• We had a record number of delegates
• We had an amazing chance for stakeholders of the game to meet and get to understand what is going on outside our region
• Our leagues throughout the country got many opportunities to learn and provide feedback on what they see and what they want to see from the NSO moving forward

Thanks to Montreal Ultimate for once again being a great host.

You haven't left the GOAT Herd yet... Have You?

Nation,

If you have had the pleasure of playing or watching GOAT or Furious George, you'd be hard pressed to dispute that:

• Both teams are good at 'frisbee'
• Both teams are very good elite teams at the UPA level
• Both teams had disappointing UPA runs this fall
  

Usually when a team I support or am involved with does well, I think I must come across as a cynic devil's advocate. I don't mean to be, I just simply don't like it when people make too much of a win and make incorrect inferences from them. It's the complete opposite when said team doesn't do well. I get to be honestly positive when people are going over the top negative.

The wheels fell off for GOAT at nationals. Furious lost the last spot to finals at regionals versus a team they beat at the same tournament the day before. Hence, we have been subjected to "what's wrong with GOAT/Monkey" questions ever since.

These teams are elite teams. They played elite teams and won and lost. Heading into each game, there were certain probabilities that GOAT/Furious would win or lose. I think people would be shocked at how evenly likely teams at this level can win or lose and how arbitrary the outcomes can be.

A good example: Dave Berri of Wages explains Randomness and how people are fooled. (original concept from Nassim Taleb's book):

"At the start of each football game a coin is tossed to determine who will receive the opening kick-off. Let’s imagine if instead of just one team calling heads or tails the fans in attendance were also asked to make a call. And let’s further imagine that if you make the correct call, you get to stay. But if you are wrong, you have to leave.

Okay, now let’s do a bit more imagining. Let’s say 80,000 fans are in attendance – and since fans know it is a fair coin (equally likely to be heads or tails) — about 40,000 make the wrong call. So these fans exit the building. After they are gone, let’s imagine we play the same game again. This time, about 20,000 fans are incorrect and they depart. And then we play it again, and again, and again… After three tosses we are left with about 10,000 fans. After seven tosses there are about 625 fans. After twelve tosses we should still have about 40 people left in the stands.

Now what have these 40 people learned? These people have just called a coin flip correctly twelve consecutive times. Clearly these people are incredible at this game.

If we play the game one more time, though, we should expect about 20 more to depart. What will these departing fans have learned? Well, clearly they just didn’t match-up with the 20 who got the 13^th call correctly. And they better go home and figure out why that particular match-up didn’t work if they ever wish to see another football game.

The Point?

Makes you realize how good Fury and Riot are in the women's division compared to the rest of the field.

People often have problems understanding randomness. And what it says is relevant to how people see the results of a team at UPA finals or tournament finishes in general.

As for our Canadian teams

• Furious proved they are able to win out of their ultra tough region, but they simply didn't win the game that counted.
  
• GOAT shouldn't over-react to their recent slip.. unless there is a clear team in their team/opposition that leads them to conclude their chances to win have decreased.

So don't throw out the Furious or GOAT foam finger yet. You could replay Finals again this weekend and have completely different results on the open side.

This shouldn't stop teams from doing things in the off season to improve their probabilities and odds for next year. Training, studying video, strategy, recruitment, and all the fun stuff!