Brainstorm: Stats in Ultimate

Nation,

The call to action for this post is

• Help me list key stats on o and d for teams and players

_____________________________________________________________
On "vacation" this week, but I really haven't had power the last few days due to the ice storm that has hit my native province. If interested, this site may sum it up.

Was looking at my UPA ultimate newsletter this week, and I have to say I was mostly impressed with the product. Great photos, complete coverage of the respective divisions, and a lot of great stuff to read. The writing was a little weak in the divisional write ups (right style, just a little less engaging and concise than possible) but I definitely like the overall product. Injury advice, UPA news, spirit awards, and a retrospective by Steve Mooney.

Sockeye Photo Courtesty http://www.seattlesockeye.org/

An interesting part of the newsletter is pages 30-31. Stats are listed for the finals of each division. Team and player totals were collected for the very basic:

• Assists
• Goals
• D's (defensive takeaways)
  
• Turnovers

Immediately my friends are thinking that I'm going to attack this because macro level stats can be worse (more misleading) than no stats at all. I admit that's my first thought. But then I realize that this is a good start.

Using stats to indicate true player contribution and value will never be perfect. So why do it? I'll give you the reason through a quote by Billy Beane:

I think the misconception about any statistical analysis is that you’re not going to be 100 percent correct,” Beane said. “What you’re trying to do is create an arbitrage … if you’re right 25 percent versus 20 percent you’ve created a 5 percent arbitrage opportunity. That’s really all you’re trying to do.”

Billy Beane
Source: ESPN/Ehrmann/WireImage

That's why its worth it.

I can tell you there is some observable trends that are of interesting note

• The masters final was the most efficient. There were 11 turnovers and 6 d's.
  
• The men's final in open had 44 turnovers and 15 d's. It is incredible that such talented teams were that inefficient.
  
• Highly touted Ben Wiggins of Sockeye had a very inefficient final. He was credited with just one d, no goals, no assists, and 4 turnovers. This might be exactly the type of player that is undervalued by a 4 variable stat package.
  
• Johnny Bravo's Parker Krug had 7 turnovers in the open final. Riot's Miranda Roth had 7 turnovers also in the Women's game. Their teams lost, probably because they didn't substitute these players off.
  
• Coed had the worst turnover to d ratio of the four finals. This in spite of the fact the newsletter talks constantly of the improved level of the division.
  

So, I am hoping viewers can help me by listing all key stats on both players and teams for offense and defense.

Post on the site or e-mail me. Forward it on to your stathead friends.

UPA Finals Update- Day 2 Recap

Nation,

Quick update before a little shut eye. Making the trip to Kingston for Goosebowl early tomorrow.

Bets of luck on day 3!

OPEN

Reason to celebrate and reason to be disappointed if your a Canadian ultimate fan today.

GOAT, whose great season has been largely discounted on many UPA finals hype threads, had another solid day Friday. They lose 15-7 to Johnny Bravo (of Boulder , Colorado), but then take care of the legendary Condors of Santa Barbara 15-10. With this win, Goat moves on to Quarters against Chain Lightning of Atlanta. Thus, the Toronto/Ottawa squad has a realistic shot of making semis, and going further in this tournament than they have every done.

3 time UPA and defending World Champion Furious George looked to rebound from a dismal 0-3 day one. They needed to win both of their games and hope for a bit of luck/fate to get a crossover opportunity for quarters. They did their part, beating Rhino 15-1o and Pike 15-11. Unfortunately, the carry over loss from day one left them in a three way 2-1 tie from Rhino and Truck Stop, and Truck Stop advanced on a tie breaker. Furious is now out of the running for the title and will compete for 9th.

Here is how the Open Quarters shape up

• Johnny Bravo versus Boston Ultimate
• Chain Lightning versus GOAT
• Sockeye versus Truck Stop
• JAM versus Sub Zero

Women's

Bounced out of the power pools, the Capitals of Ottawa/Toronto looked to bounce back and get into the quarters in back door fashion.

Starting the day 1-0, Capitals defeated MOJO 15-8 and then shot the Loose Cannon team 15-4 to finish 3-0 and have a shot at making quarters. Down early to San Diego's Safari, the Capitals came back to win 14-12.

Coming back from weak pool relegation, the Capitals find themselves in the quarter-finals against Riot. This will be a daunting task.

The quarters look like this:

• Fury versus Backhoe
• Lady Godiva versus Ozone
• Riot versus Ozone
• Brute Squad versus Zeitgeist

Given the scores, Fury and Riot look like the absolute class of the division, and anything less than a matchup between these two teams would be a surprise.

UPA Finals Update- Day One

Nation,

Just a quick update on the Canadian teams. You can see the complete Results for each division by clicking on the respective link.

Open

Goat has a great day (2-1), taking care of Ring of Fire and The Van Buren Boys. They lose badly to JAM, but ensure a spot in the power pools for Friday. D line player Colin Green reports that he and his GOAT teammates are looking forward to tomorrow's games.

Furious has a surprising 0-3 day, as the last seed in their pool goes 3-0 and takes first in the reseed. I have no idea what happened to our favorite monkeys. Some people are saying on rec.sport.disc that Mike Grant is injured. Others point out to a consistently inconsistent seasons as the foreshadowing of this kind of performance. Scobel Wiggins Photography

Women's

The Capitals of Toronto and Ottawa went 2-1 on day one. They beat Lady Godiva and Box, and lost to Zeitgeist. Good enough to hold seed and move into the power pools right?

Wrong.

Lady Godiva, the same team that offered virtually no competition to the Capitals (losing 15-5 to the Caps) at their own Boston Invite tournament this June, beats the top seed in the pool (Zeitgeist) 16-14 to steal a power pool spot from Capitals. Looks like the storied team from Boston is still a team to be respected.

So, the Capitals must now win at least two games on Friday to get a cross over opportunity. If they win the crossover, they will play the top team from Power Pool E. That means Fury in all likelihood stands between them and semis.

Best of luck to the ladies.

UPA Championships 2007- Inital Seedings Posted

Nation,

I say nation despite that fact that, according to google analytics, I have quite a few american and non north american visitors to the site on a daily basis. I definitely appreciate the viewership.

The initial seedings for each division are up on the UPA site. Here is the list of divisons and teams. Canadian teams in bold, with an asterisk.

Open

1. Jam
2. Sockeye
3. Johnny Bravo
4. Furious George *
   
5. Sub Zero
6. Condors
7. Boston Ultimate
8. GOAT *
   
9. Ring Of Fire
10. Rhino
11. Double Wide
    
12. Truck Stop
13. Chain Lightning
14. Machine
15. Pike
16. The Van Buren Boys

Women's

1. Fury
2. Riot
3. Brute Squad
4. Zeitgeist
5. Capitals *
   
6. Safari
   
7. Backhoe
8. Ozone
9. Small Packages
10. Mojo
11. Wicked
12. Lady Godiva
13. Box
14. Layuma
15. Loose Cannon
16. Ambush

Mixed

1. Shazam Returns
2. Mischeif
3. Slow White
4. Brass Monkey
5. Amp
6. Mental Toss Flycoons
7. Tandem
8. Rival
9. ICE
10. Barrio
11. Bad Larry
12. Chewbacca Defense
13. Axis Of C'ville
14. Black Molly
    
15. The Poodle Club
16. Bashing Pinatas
    

Masters

1. Troubled Past
2. Old and In the Way
3. Bigs
4. DOG
5. Mileage
6. O.L.D S.A.G.
7. Above and Beyond
8. Surly
9. Ironwood
10. Miami
11. REAL Huck
12. Boneyard