Using Video for Ultimate Stats and Analysis

Nation,

I've long said that video was the next step in better understanding the game of ultimate and the value of players on a given team/level.

Why video? The game can be better explained from more than just scores and player goals and assists. That is a small part of the bigger picture teams can use to better evaluate their team/opponents. The more data and games you can collect, the more meaningful your data. It is still impossible to perfectly predict future results, but you can create an arbitrage and understanding of what you need to do to win.

Based on my master thesis on the NHL, I certainly have an interest in bringing some form of better stats to ultimate. Also, my involvement in the game as a player also inspires me. If there is a link between stats and ultimate wins, I want to find it. (hypothesis is still that all around efficiency is the best predictor of success)

I can think a specific incident last year where my open team had a injured player from our open program (a very respect player of considerable reputation of perceived talent) took stats while watching us play a tournament. This person took these primitive stats ( number of points, goals. assists, turns) and made some "conclusions" about players (one defensive player in particular) which eventually made an influence in how that player was treated and seen on the depth chart all season. So, because this player wasn't flashy and didn't fit the prototype, all it took was some poor stats from a small sample to seal his fate. I'd really like to do something to help prevent those kinds of things happening.

People have experimented taking their own stats and using a palm pda on site to take stats as they go. However, I think the time constraints and speed of the game leave these methods susceptible to stat errors and omissions. Video is the way to go.

What are our current restraints?

• Not a lot of games are done in full and available for viewing. You have to videotape your own games
• I now realize that it takes 3-4 hours to watch a game and decode it for both offense and defensive stats. You need to have several players on a team helping to decode it with the same legend guide.. because it takes time and effort.
  
• We don't have organized leagues and stats from each team that would allow us to compute the average of teams and players, and use that to determine how players mark up versus the average player at his/her position.

This was one of the few weekends that I had free time on the weekend. I finally decided to put my money where my mouth was and test out data collection via video.

The next post is my first venture. After my first game decode/transcribe, I feel even more confident that teams willing to videotape their games and break down the footage can learn something about their opponents, and much more about themselves

The Sad Facts About Air Travel and Ultimate

Nation,

By this time, your team has made a decision about whether or not to attend regionals in your province, with the hopes of going to nationals in Calgary.

With all the positive information I have heard about the Cowtown tournament from those in and out of ultimate, I was originally saddened to realize that the World Championships, happening the week before in the neighboring province of B.C., was going dampen the quality of the nationals tournament. Many worlds players will miss nationals because they can't/won't play in two high level tournaments in successive weeks. Now, it is also rumored that some great teams in their entirety will skip nationals.

Are good teams skipping nationals to imitate Furious George? Sadly, it's not that simple. These no shows might very well continue into the near future.

It's those d@mn airplane ticket prices.

They are killing the growth of our game at the highest level.

I won't make many excuses for the airline companies in this countries. Essentially, we are at the mercy of an oligopoly. Air Canada has managed to endear themselves to no one with inefficiency, constant service reduction and self entitlement when it comes to government support and government regulation. WestJet's reputation as a cheap fare carrier is taking a beating.

However, we all know the cost of fuel prices. They are skyrocketing. It is estimated that trips across Canada cost $129 or more per seat. That's the start of the sunk costs, and we can start to see why players can't afford to come to Calgary and experience a great host.

It's our nature as ultimate players to either b^tch among friends and pay , or bail out on our team with the explanation of cost. If we want to do something about it, we have to do more.

How do other sports do it?

• A strong national organization that centralizes membership size and strength
  
• Early planning
  
• Sponsorship affinity programs with the airlines that give strong benefits to the airline.
  
• Organized purchases by groups and associations
  

Much like being on an ultimate team that has to adapt to its opponents, we have to adapt to the way sport business works. The lack of support from government is actually a strength for us, as we are flexible to do business with the corporate world.

It sucks that we are playing in a time where the cost of airplane travel is becoming more of a barrier than an enabler. In such a big country, there is little we can do outside of getting organized, working together and flexing those purchasing muscles of ours.