Thursday, August 23, 2007

The Discrepancy in Canadian Ultimate- Some VERY Simple Numbers


The east suffered a crushing blow at Nationals 2007.

How bad?

They didn't just take the division titles and the worlds berths. It was worse than that my friends. Western teams came into Toronto and consistently finished better than east teams in almost all Divisons:

Legend:
AT= Atlantic Teams
QC= Quebec Teams
ON= Ontario
PR= Prarie teams from Manitoba or Saskatchewan
AB= Alberta Teams
BC= British Columbia teams

Open:
20 Teams (2 AT, 4 QC, 8 ON, 2 PR, 1 AB, 2 BC)
Top 8 Breakdown: (O AT, 1 QC. 2 ON, 2 PR, 1 AB, 2 BC)
Note: 100% of Western teams made the top 8.

Women's
16 teams (1 AT, 3 QC, 9 ON, 1 AB, 2 BC)
Top 8 Breakdown (1 AT, 1 QC, 3 ON, 1 AB, 2 BC)
Note: 100% of Western teams made the top 8.

Mixed
20 Teams ( 3 AT, 6 QC, 6 ON, 1 PR, 2 AB, 2 BC)
Top 8 Breakdown (O AT, 2 QC, 4 ON, 0 PR, 0 AB, 2 BC)
Note: 40% of West teams made it to top 8

Juniors
11 teams (0 AT, 2 QC, 6 ON, 1 PR, 0 AB, 2 BC)
Top 8 Breakdown (0 AT, 1 QC, 4 ON, 1 PR, 0 AB, 2 BC)
Note: 100% of West teams made it to top 8

Masters
12 Teams (1 AT, 1 QC, 6 ON, 1 PR, 2 AB, 1 BC)
Top 8 Breakdown (0 AT, 1 QC, 4 ON, 1 PR, 1 AB, 1 BC)
Note: 75% of West teams made top 8
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total West Teams: 20
West Teams in Top 8: 16
Percentage of West teams in the Top 8: 80%

Total Ontario Teams: 35
Teams in Top 8: 17
Percentage of teams in the Top 8: 48.6 %

Total Quebec Teams: 16
Teams in Top 8: 5
Percentage of teams in the Top 8: 31.2%

Total Atlantic Teams: 7
Teams in Top 8: 2
Percentage of teams in the Top 8: 29%

10 comments:

higy said...

These stats are biased because many west teams in all divisions did not attend nationals last summer. This decreased their number of bids meaning only the top western teams attended.

Sport Management Steven said...

Higy,

I'm not going to really defend my oversimplified stats on this one.

However, these stats are not "biased". East numbers are watered down by higher number of entrants, but the rate of West success was outstanding.

Outside of east teams Goat, Capitals and BFC (who all lost in the finals, the west teams seemed pretty dominant when watching them play or looking at their finishes as a whole.

Do I like realizing the West showed up like a deadbeat dad and stole the show this year? :) No.

We need to find out why the West is winning.

Mortakai said...

More specifically, in ALL divisions without exception, 100% of BC teams made it into the top 8.

Happy Camper said...

Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics.

Lots of Ontario teams due to the location of the event and fewer Western teams. I think a more consistent analysis would involve comparing a similar number of teams from Ontario to that of the west (i.e. top 4 Ontario teams versus top 4 west teams in Open etc.).

Point is statistics can be cut in any way to support any point you want.

BC dominated when it mattered in the finals - good for them.

Other than that, I am not sure I noticed any real striking point to come out of Nats.

Kev Ko. said...

It's good to know that a 5 hour drive back from Nationals trapped in the car with you has sparked some questioning about the ultimate out west. I love this thread. ;)

The problem is you can't over simplify the success of the western teams. Is it that they play in the rain all the time? Maybe. Or that they are all better athletes? Arguable, if true sure that helps... but what everyone is missing is the foundation that they are building on.

One obvious advantage that people don't consider is how long the team has existed. Take Furious for example. How long has Furious been established? Been world class? Continually??? I'm sure that you can build a team to match them athletically or even play under sprinklers for the lack of rain, but I don't think they'd stand a chance. Ultimate requires every members of the team to fire together what are the odds that a more recently formed Goat with Ottawa pickups are going to match a hardened time tested Furious line? Not good. Same for capitals (year one) and BFC (year one). Everyone on these teams is 'good' at frisbee just like a single west counterpart. But the East lack the years spent playing together (and in high level competition) that our Western teams enjoy.

I truly believe that, the next thread that Steve should open is has a lack of continuity hurt the Eastern teams? That would be interesting...

Sport Management Steven said...

-Happy Camper doesn't sound all that happy.

-Stats do get manipulated all too often. However, my simple stats are guilty of not having much bite, rather than manipulation of the research question, the findings or the data collection.

-Simple as they are, the results of the tourney do show that BC dominated, and the West and Prairies made the trip well worth their while. It was the West as a whole, not just Vancouver, that did well.

Sport Management Steven said...

5 hours in a car with Kevin Ko is always time well spent!

happy camper said...

First of all, I am always happy.

And I do not think that you manipulated the stats… just that you looked in a very simplistic way and drew a questionable conclusion based on a process that is not indicative of the whole. There were lots of Eastern teams at Nats that, had the tourney been in the West or the criteria for entry been tougher, would have not participated. There were fewer Western teams (probably due to cost and lack of qualifying spots due to results (again poorly attended by Western teams) at Halifax). So why count all the eastern teams in your statistical analysis? Because it helps prove your theory, or because it was easy, or because that is what you thought was best. Regardless, let’s dig just a little deeper.

First – assumptions… Since you want to compare West versus East (as it is obvious that BC dominated overall) and since fewer Western teams came, let’s assume that the cream of the West came and compare versus the same number of Eastern teams (to get the cream of the East).

Open – 5 Western teams – 5 in the top 8 – average ranking of top 5 Western teams 4.4.
Open – Top 5 eastern teams – 3 in top 8 – average ranking of top 5 Eastern teams 6.6.

Advantage WEST

Womens – 3 Western teams – 3 in the top 8 – average ranking of the top 3 Western teams 4.0.
Womens - Top 3 eastern teams – 3 in top 8 – average ranking of top 5 Eastern teams 3.7.

Advantage EVEN – I will call this one even as it is the 8th place finish of Crush that negates the 1 and 3 finishes of Traffic and Alberta. The 2nd Toronto team did top the 2nd Vancouver team however…

Coed – 5 Western teams – 2 in the top 8 – average ranking of top 5 Western teams 9.4.
Coed – Top 5 eastern teams – 5 in top 8 – average ranking of top 5 Eastern teams 4.6.

Advantage EAST

Masters – 4 Western teams – 3 in the top 8 – average ranking of top 4 Western teams 6.0.
Masters – Top 4 eastern teams – 4 in top 8 – average ranking of top 4 Eastern teams 3.5.

Advantage EAST

Juniors – 3 Western teams – 3 in the top 8 – average ranking of top 3 Western teams 3.3.
Juniors – Top 3 eastern teams – 3 in top 8 – average ranking of top 3 Eastern teams 3.7.

Advantage EVEN – I will call this even as well although there might be a slight Western advantage.

So what conclusions can be made? In my mind, based on this small sample size, BC currently has the top teams in Canada (for the most part) and that West and East are generally even otherwise. I do not see domination by the West overall as indicated by your version of the stats. Next year, when CUC is out west, we will see more West teams and fewer Eastern teams – that should help alleviate some of the geographic travel bias that are here in these results.

But as I stated in my first post – Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics….

Sport Management Steven said...

Happy,

You think a better way to analyze the past nationals is to selectively pick a sample?

Fun to read, equally useless.

Maybe we should use more nationals results from previous years, use points for/against differentials, examining head to head match ups within divisions.

sharpie said...

I like coconuts.